Showing posts with label Trend Analysis. Show all posts

Saturday, December 6, 2008

Trend Analysis: Fibonacci Retracement

Reprinted from: http://www.alpari.co.uk/en/market-analysis-guide/technical-analysis/fibonacci-retracement.html

Trend Analysis: Fibonacci Retracement

Price correction (retracement) is a short-term anti-trend price movement. Prices almost never just rise during the uptrend and fall during the downtrend. Even within the same trend, the price can rise and then retrace for a while or vice versa. The most profitable and less risky positions are positions opened at the end of the retracement. It is therefore important to know how to define the levels at which the trend will resume after a short retracement. Technical analysis has the so called correction index which uses Fibonacci numbers. The Fibonacci sequence is a series of numbers that takes the previous number and adds it to the current number to get the next number in the sequence. For example, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144 etc.

These numbers possess an intriguing number of interrelationships, such as the fact that any given number is approximately 1.618 times the preceding number and any given number is approximately 0.618 times the following number.

Experienced traders know that in a fast market, the correction is about 0.382 of the price range movement. In a market with average price movements, correction is about half the price range movement. Maximum correction is 0.618, which indicates that the trend is rather weak.

Fibonacci Retracement in MetaTrader 4

To estimate if Fibonacci Retracement breakout is true, please refer to the methods used to estimate the truth of the trend lines breakouts.

In order to draw Fibonacci Retracement in MetaTrader 4 press the button of the "Line Studies" toolbar:

Drag the cursor to the uptrend low (downtrend high), click and hold the left mouse button to drag the cursor to the uptrend high (downtrend low) and release the button. Fibonacci Retracement appears on the chart. Highlight it by double clicking, click the right mouse button to enable the context menu with the settings.

Trend Analysis: Support/Resistance Levels

Reprinted from: http://www.alpari.co.uk/en/market-analysis-guide/technical-analysis/support-and-resistance.html

Trend Analysis: Support/Resistance Levels

Support and Resistance levels are patterns of classical technical analysis. All trend (channel) lines, reversal and continuation chart patterns are only combinations of support and resistance levels.

Support level is a starting point of an uptrend, and is actually a tangent to the minimum prices. It is commonly thought that when the price falls down to the support level, Bulls (buyers) start to resist against further price decrease thus giving it support. This explains why is many cases the price will bounce back and start rising after having reached a support level.

After several attempts the price may break the support level. Once the support level is broken, it becomes the resistance level:

There is an example of when a support level became resistance in September 14, 2003:

September 14, 2003 (after the breakout): support level becomes resistance

Resistance level is a tangent to the maximum prices:

It is assumed that once the price reaches this level it will not point higher. After several attempts the price may break the resistance level. Once the resistance level is broken it becomes the support level.

Support and resistance levels are very easy to create and they are a very effective method to forecast price behaviour. In order to define if the support/resistance level breakout is true, please refer to the criteria outlined for trend lines.

Trend Analysis: Trend Lines and Trend Channels

Reprinted from: http://www.alpari.co.uk/en/market-analysis-guide/technical-analysis/trend-lines.html

Trend Analysis: Trend Lines and Trend Channels

Trend is a general direction of the price.

Trend Lines

Prices do not only rise or fall but most of the time they actually move in narrow ranges. So, in accordance with the Dow Theory we can therefore divide trends into three types:

"bull" (or "uptrend") - prices rise;
"bear" (or "downtrend") � prices fall;
"flat" (or "sideways") � prices are in a narrow range. As a general rule, market consolidates prior to a rapid price rise or fall.

First of all, it is very important to determine if the market is uptrending or downtrending (this can be done with the help of trend indicators and trend lines or channels) and if the prevailing trend is strong or weak (with the help of oscillators and charts patterns).

Uptrend line in MetaTrader

Uptrend means that every next bottom is above the previous one, and every next high is above the previous one, so in this case, the trend line is drawn between bottom points. Obviously a trend line created by joining only two points will be less effective than a trend line created by three or more points.

Downtrend line in MetaTrader

Downtrend means that every next bottom is under the previous bottom and every next high is under the previous high, so in this case, the trend line is created by using the highest points.

Any trend (bullish or bearish) must be confirmed by trade volume. Put it simply: when prices move in accordance with the prevailing trend, the trade volume increases; when prices move against the prevailing trend (rebound), then trade volume decreases. Once the situation changes and trade volume during rebounds becomes greater than that during the trend price movement, it is a serious signal that the trend may not be so strong (but it is not the signal to open the opposite position, as there is no confirmation of the trend reversal).

Flat trend line in MetaTrader

A Flat Market means that every next bottom or high is at the same level as that of the previous bottom or high. In this case, the trend line is drawn by joining both bottoms and highs.

In order to draw a trend line in MetaTrader 4 press the button on the "Line studies" toolbar:

Line studies toolbar

Point the mouse cursor to the first trend line point, click and hold the left mouse button to draw the line to the second point. Once you have done this, release the button. If you wish to highlight the trend line, just double click on it. Right-click on the highlighted object to enable the context menu:

There are two types of trend lines in MetaTrader 4: vertical () and horizontal () trend lines.

With the help of a trend line you can identify the moment when the trend will change. Once a trend line has been broken, chances are that the trend has just changed its direction or its strength has started to diminish.

Sometimes the trend line is broken by a bar low or high, and the price continues to move in the direction of the current trend. There are many methods to define if a breakout is true, hereafter are the most popular :

Trend is your friend - do not open positions against the prevailing trend.
The primary trend remains intact until a change in that trend has been given. Trend line breakout is one of the most important signals that the trend may reverse.
Do not try to open positions against the prevailing trend hoping that the trend is weak and that the reversal point is not far away. In most cases price sweeps through your Stop Loss order and only subsequently does the trend reverse.

A Stop Loss order should be placed below an uptrend line (or above a downtrend line).

Tomas Demark made his contribution to the theory of trend lines. According to his theory, trend is rooted in two critical points through which the trend is drawn. He called these points TD-lines (his name, Tomas Demark, abbreviation). These points are defined at the basis of extreme points.

Channel Lines

Channel lines are a significant part of trend analysis. Channel lines are like boundaries for price fluctuations. To create a channel line, draw a parallel straight line next to the trend line: one of them joins price chart highs, the other price chart lows:

Channel lines are used:

To point out where to fix profits and losses. If there is an uptrend channel, Take Profit order may be placed under the upper line and Stop Loss order under the lower line. If there is a downtrend channel, Take Profit order should be placed above the lower line and Stop Loss above the upper line.
If the price does not touch the upper line of the uptrend (lower line of the downtrend) this signifies that the prevailing trend is weak.

In order to create a channel line in MetaTrader 4 double click the left mouse button on the trend line, press and hold the Ctrl button and drag the newly created parallel line to its place on the chart. Then release the Ctrl button.

Thursday, December 4, 2008

Fibonacci

Fibonacci Who?

We will be using Fibonacci ratios a lot in our trading so you better learn it and love it like your mother. Fibonacci is a huge subject and there are many different studies of Fibonacci with weird names but we’re going to stick to two: retracement and extension.

Let me first start by introducing you to the Fib man himself…Leonard Fibonacci.

Leonard Fibonacci was a famous Italian mathematician, also called a super duper uber geek, who had an “aha!” moment and discovered a simple series of numbers that created ratios describing the natural proportions of things in the universe

The ratios arise from the following number series: 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144 ……

This series of numbers is derived by starting with 1 followed by 2 and then adding 1 + 2 to get 3, the third number. Then, adding 2 + 3 to get 5, the fourth number, and so on.

After the first few numbers in the sequence, if you measure the ratio of any number to that of the next higher number you get .618. For example, 34 divided by 55 equals 0.618.

If you measure the ratio between alternate numbers you get .382. For example, 34 divided by 89 = 0.382 and that’s as far as into the explanation as we’ll go.

These ratios are called the “golden mean.” Okay that’s enough mumbo jumbo. Even I’m about to fall asleep with all these numbers. I'll just cut to the chase; these are the ratios you have to know:

Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.236, 0.382, 0.500, 0.618, 0.764

Fibonacci Extension Levels
0, 0.382, 0.618, 1.000, 1.382, 1.618

You won’t really need to know how to calculate all of this. Your charting software will do all the work for you. But it’s always good to be familiar with the basic theory behind the indicator so you’ll have knowledge to impress your date.

Traders use the Fibonacci retracement levels as support and resistance levels. Since so many traders watch these same levels and place buy and sell orders on them to enter trades or place stops, the support and resistance levels become a self-fulfilling expectation.

Traders use the Fibonacci extension levels as profit taking levels. Again, since so many traders are watching these levels and placing buy and sell orders to take profits, this tool usually works due self-fulfilling expectations.

Most charting software includes both Fibonacci retracement levels and extension level tools. In order to apply Fibonacci levels to your charts, you’ll need to identify Swing High and Swing Low points.

A Swing High is a candlestick with at least two lower highs on both the left and right of itself.

A Swing Low is a candlestick with at least two higher lows on both the left and right of itself.

Let's take a closer look at Fibonacci retracement levels...

Fibonacci Retracement

In an uptrend, the general idea is to go long the market on a retracement to a Fibonacci support level. In order to find the retracement levels, you would click on a significant Swing Low and drag the cursor to the most recent Swing High. This will display each of the Retracement Levels showing both the ratio and corresponding price level. Let’s take a look at some examples of markets in an uptrend.

This is an hourly chart of USD/JPY. Here we plotted the Fibonacci Retracement Levels by clicking on the Swing Low at 110.78 on 07/12/05 and dragging the cursor to the Swing High at 112.27 on 07/13/05. You can see the levels plotted by the software. The Retracement Levels were 111.92 (0.236), 111.70 (0.382), 111.52 (0.500), and 111.35 (0.618). Now the expectation is that if USD/JPY retraces from this high, it will find support at one of the Fibonacci Levels because traders will be placing buy orders at these levels as the market pulls back.

Now let’s look at what actually happened after the Swing High occurred. The market pulled back right through the 0.236 level and continued the next day piercing the 0.382 level but never actually closing below it. Later on that day, the market resumed its upward move. Clearly buying at the 0.382 level would have been a good short term trade.

Now let’s see how we would use Fibonacci Retracement Levels during a downtrend. This is an hourly chart for EUR/USD. As you can see, we found our Swing High at 1.3278 on 02/28/05 and our Swing Low at 1.3169 a couple hours later. The Retracement Levels were 1.3236 (0.618), 1.3224 (0.500), 1.3211 (0.382), and 1.3195 (.236). The expectation for a downtrend is if it retraces from this high, it will encounter resistance at one of the Fibonacci Levels because traders will be placing sell orders at these levels as the market attempts to rally.

Let’s check out what happened next. Now isn’t that a thing of beauty! The market did try to rally but it barely past the 0.500 level spiking to a high 1.3227 and it actually closed below it. After that bar, you can see that the rally reversed and the downward move continued. You would have made some nice dough selling at the 0.382 level.

Here’s another example. This is an hourly chart for GBP/USD. We had a Swing High of 1.7438 on 07/26/05 and a Swing Low of 1.7336 the next day. So our Retracement Levels are: 1.7399 (0.618), 1.7387 (0.500), 1.7375 (0.382), and 1.7360 (0.236). Looking at the chart, the market looks like it tried to break the 0.500 level on several occasions, but try as it may, it failed. So would putting a sell order at the 0.500 level be a good trade?

If you did, you would have lost some serious cheddar! Take a look at what happened. The Swing Low looked to be the bottom for this downtrend as the market rallied above the Swing High point.

You can see from these examples the market usually finds at least temporary support (during an uptrend) or resistance (during a downtrend) at the Fibonacci Retracements Levels. It’s apparent that there a few problems to deal with here. There’s no way of knowing which level will provide support. The 0.236 seems to provide the weakest support/resistance, while the other levels provide support/resistance at about the same frequency. Even though the charts above show the market usually only retracing to the 0.382 level, it doesn’t mean the price will hit that level every time and reverse. Sometimes it’ll hit the 0.500 and reverse, other times it’ll hit the 0.618 and reverse, and other times the price will totally ignore Mr. Fibonacci and blow past all the levels like similar to the way Allen Iverson blows past his defenders with his nasty first step. Remember, the market will not always resume its uptrend after finding temporary support, but instead continue to decline below the last Swing Low. Same thing for a downtrend. The market may instead decide to continue above the last Swing High.

The placement of stops is a challenge. It’s probably best to place stops below the last Swing Low (on an uptrend) or above the Swing High (on a downtrend), but this requires taking a high level of risk in proportion to the likely profit potential in the trade. This is called reward-to-risk ratio. In a later lesson, you will learn more money management and risk control and how you would only take trades with certain reward-to-risk ratios.

Another problem is determining which Swing Low and Swing High points to start from to create the Fibonacci Retracement Levels. People look at charts differently and so will have their own version of where the Swing High and Swing Low points should be. The point is, there is no one right way to do it, but the bad thing is sometimes it becomes a guessing game.

Fibonacci Extension

The next use of Fibonacci you will be applying is that of targets. Let’s start with an example in an uptrend.

In an uptrend, the general idea is to take profits on a long trade at a Fibonacci Price Extension Level. You determine the Fibonacci extension levels by using three mouse clicks. First, click on a significant Swing Low, then drag your cursor and click on the most recent Swing High. Finally, drag your cursor back down and click on the retracement Swing Low. This will display each of the Price Extension Levels showing both the ratio and corresponding price levels.

On this 1-hour USD/CHF chart, we plotted the Fibonacci extension levels by clicking on the Swing Low at 1.2447 on 08/14/05 and dragged the cursor to the Swing High at 1.2593 on 08/15/05 and then down to the retracement Swing Low of 1.2541 on 08/15/05. The following Fibonacci extension levels created are 1.2597 (0.382), 1.2631 (0.618), 1.2687 (1.000), 1.2743 (1.382), 1.2760 (1.500), and 1.2777 (1.618).

Now let’s look at what actually happened after the retracement Swing Low occurred.

The market rallied to the 0.500 level
fell back to the retracement Swing Low
then rallied back up to the 0.500 level
fell back slightly
rallied to the 0.618 level
fell back to the 0.382 level which acted as support
then rallied all the way to the 1.382 level
consolidated a bit
then rallied to the 1.500 level

You can see from these examples that the market often finds at least temporary resistance at the Fibonacci extension levels - not always, but often. As in the examples of the retracement levels, it should be apparent that there are a few problems to deal with here as well. First, there is no way of knowing which level will provide resistance. The 0.500 level was a good level to cover any long trades in the above example since the market retraced back to its original level, but if you didn’t get back in the trade, you would have left a lot of profits on the table.

Another problem is determining which Swing Low to start from in creating the Fibonacci Extension Levels. One way is from the last Swing Low as we did in the examples; another is from the lowest Swing Low of the past 30 bars. Again, the point is that there is no one right way to do it, and consequently it becomes a guessing game.

Alright, let’s see how Fibonacci extension levels can be used during a downtrend. In a downtrend, the general idea is to take profits on a short trade at a Fibonacci price extension level since the market often finds at least temporary support at these levels.

On this 1-hour EUR/USD chart, we plotted the Fibonacci extension levels by clicking on the Swing High at 1.21377 on 07/15/05 and dragged the cursor to the Swing Low at 1.2021 on 08/15/15 and then down to the retracement High of 1.2085. The following Fibonacci extension levels created are 1.2041 (0.382), 1.2027 (0.500), 1.2013 (0.618), 1.1969 (1.000), 1.1925 (1.382), 1.1911 (1.500), and 1.1897 (1.618).

Now let’s look at what actually happened after the retracement Swing Low occurred.

The market fell down almost to the 0.382 level which for right now is acting as a support level
The market then traded sideways between the retracement Swing High level and 0.382 level
Finally, the market broke through the 0.382 and rested on the 0.500 level
Then it broke the 0.500 level and fell all the way down to the 1.000 level

Alone, Fibonacci levels will not make you rich. However, Fibonacci levels are definitely useful as part of an effective trading method that includes other analysis and techniques. You see, the key to an effective trading system is to integrate a few indicators (not too many) that are applied in a way that is not obvious to most observers.

All successful traders know it’s how you use and integrate the indicators (including Fibonacci) that makes the difference. The lesson learned here is that Fibonacci Levels can be a useful tool, but never enter or exit a trade based on Fibonacci Levels alone.

Summary

Fibonacci retracement levels are 0.236, 0.382, 0.500, 0.618, 0.764

Fibonacci extension levels are 0, 0.382, 0.618, 1.000, 1.382, 1.618

In order to apply Fibonacci levels to your charts, you’ll need to identify Swing High and Swing Low points.

A Swing High is a candlestick with at least two lower highs on both the left and right of itself.

A Swing Low is a candlestick with at least two higher lows on both the left and right of itself.

Support and Resistance

Support and resistance is one of the most widely used concepts in trading. Strangely enough, everyone seems to have their own idea on how you should measure support and resistance.

Let’s just take a look at the basics first.

Look at the diagram above. As you can see, this zigzag pattern is making its way up (bull market). When the market moves up and then pulls back, the highest point reached before it pulled back is now resistance.

As the market continues up again, the lowest point reached before it started back is now support. In this way resistance and support are continually formed as the market oscillates over time. The reverse of course is true of the downtrend.

Plotting Support and Resistance

One thing to remember is that support and resistance levels are not exact numbers. Often times you will see a support or resistance level that appears broken, but soon after find out that the market was just testing it. With candlestick charts, these "tests" of support and resistance are usually represented by the candlestick shadows.

Notice how the shadows of the candles tested the 2500 resistance level. At those times it seemed like the market was "breaking" resistance. However, in hindsight we can see that the market was merely testing that level.

So how do we truly know if support or resistance is broken?

There is no definite answer to this question. Some argue that a support or resistance level is broken if the market can actually close past that level. However, you will find that this is not always the case. Let's take our same example from above and see what happened when the price actually closed past the 2500 resistance level.

In this case, the price had closed twice above the 2500 resistance level but both times ended up falling back down below it. If you had believed that these were real breakouts and bought this pair, you would've been seriously hurtin! Looking at the chart now, you can visually see and come to the conclusion that the resistance was not actually broken; and that it is still very much in tact and now even stronger.

So to help you filter out these false breakouts, you should think of support and resistance more of as "zones" rather than concrete numbers. One way to help you find these zones is to plot support and resistance on a line chart rather than a candlestick chart. The reason is that line charts only show you the closing price while candlesticks add the extreme highs and lows to the picture. These highs and lows can be misleading because often times they are just the "knee-jerk" reactions of the market. It's like when someone is doing something really strange, but when asked about it, they simply reply, "Sorry, it's just a reflex."

When plotting support and resistance, you don't want the reflexes of the market. You only want to plot its intentional movements.

Looking at the line chart, you want to plot your support and resistance lines around areas where you can see the price forming several peaks or valleys.

Other interesting tidbits about support and resistance:

When the market passes through resistance, that resistance now becomes support.
The more often price tests a level of resistance or support without breaking it the stronger the area of resistance or support is.

Trend Lines

Trend lines are probably the most common form of technical analysis used today. They are probably one of the most underutilized as well.

If drawn correctly, they can be as accurate as any other method. Unfortunately, most traders don't draw them correctly or they try to make the line fit the market instead of the other way around.

In their most basic form, an uptrend line is drawn along the bottom of easily identifiable support areas (valleys). In a downtrend, the trend line is drawn along the top of easily identifiable resistance areas (peaks).

Channels

If we take this trend line theory one step further and draw a parallel line at the same angle of the uptrend or downtrend, we will have created a channel.

To create an up (ascending) channel, simply draw a parallel line at the same angle as an uptrend line and then move that line to position where it touches the most recent peak. This should be done at the same time you create the trend line.

To create a down (descending) channel, simple draw a parallel line at the same angle as the downtrend line and then move that line to a position where it touches the most recent valley. This should be done at the same time you created the trend line.

When prices hit the bottom trend line this may be used as a buying area. When prices hit the upper trend line this may be used as a selling area.

Summary

When the market moves up and then pulls back, the highest point reached before it pulled back is now resistance.

As the market continues up again, the lowest point reached before it started back is now support.

To create an up (ascending) channel, simply draw a parallel line at the same angle as an uptrend line and then move that line to position where it touches the most recent peak.

To create a down (descending) channel, simple draw a parallel line at the same angle as the downtrend line and then move that line to a position where it touches the most recent valley.

FX Tango

Saturday, December 6, 2008